MOODY'S LOWERS U.S. DEBT OUTLOOK | CROUCH CONNECTION| NOVEMBER 2023 "ADV"
MOODY’S LOWERS U.S. DEBT OUTLOOK
From the New York Times:
“The outlook on the credit rating of the United States was changed to “negative” from “stable” on Friday by the ratings firm Moody’s, which pointed to the nation’s worsening fiscal position and political polarization as long-term concerns for America’s economy.
The change falls short of a downgrade to America’s credit rating, which Moody’s maintained at the highest AAA level. But it is another black mark for the economy and underscores the threat posed by rising interest rates, a mounting debt burden and a polarized Congress that has been unable to agree on ways to reduce America’s budget deficit.”
Moody’s statement on the change explains:
“In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues, Moody’s expects that the U.S.’ fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability,” Moody’s said in a statement. “Continued political polarization within U.S. Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability.”
HIGHER INTEREST RATES LONG-TERM?
Although economists and market strategists have been warning for many years that government deficits would lead to higher interest rates, the predictions never came true until Covid stimulus spending exploded the deficit to levels we never expected. Over $8 TRILLION in US deficits since 2020 have now spooked the bond market and the investors that have been readily buying US debt for many years, pushing bond yields (long-term interest rates) higher.
I have said in recent conversations that the recent lack of political will to control deficit spending could be a problem. If Congress doesn’t get spending under control, we could see a long-term change in the level of inflation and higher interest rates long-term.
Fed officials have been predicting higher rates for longer for several months now, but they have not been able to explain the real reason for their concern because they are not allowed to criticize Congress. Congress could conceivably take away the Fed’s power, so Fed officials have to be careful not to step on the toes of Congressmen and Senators.
AREN’T HIGHER INTEREST RATES GOOD?
It is natural to react to higher interest rates by welcoming the higher CD rates and bond interest rates, but unless you have significant wealth and a limited life-style, you could easily outlive your money because of the erosion of inflation. If you earn 5% interest on your CDs but inflation is 3%, you have really just made 2% return on your money
We continue to believe that investments in strong companies with the ability to raise prices to offset inflation is one of the best ways to help preserve your spending power from inflation. Earnings growth has been described as the “mother’s milk” of stock market returns, and that is where our focus is at Aspen Grove Asset Management.
Keeping some money in income investments is probably wise as well so that you can be reassured during the inevitable market downturns, but investments in well-diversified, well-researched companies with strong GROWTH prospects has been a time-tested way to beat inflation for many years. Real estate has also been a good hedge against inflation, but
access to your funds when you need them can be an issue.
RECENT MARKET ACTION
Market action during the past three months has been anything but comforting, but November has started of with a surge, in fact a historic surge. We subscribe to a daily newsletter, the Sentiment Trader, produced by some brilliant market statisticians. They track dozens of market statistics and report daily on the historical significance of recent market moves.
Over the past few weeks, they have reported on several statistics that often occur near the bottom of a market correction, raising our hopes that we could still have a year-end rally. Their post on November 6th was extremely promising:
“THE GRANDADDY OF THRUSTS WITH A PERFECT RECORD”
Reporting on a technical indicator called a “Zweig Breadth Thrust” named after the well-respected late analyst and money manager Martin Zweig, they report that the indicator which has just been triggered during the first three days of November, has had a perfect track record since 1950.
While the S&P 500 has never suffered a loss 6-12 months after these thrusts, they cautioned:
“Nothing is infallible in auction markets, and breadth thrusts are no exception, even ones with a long history of real-time success. Still, it's hard to find fault with the thrusts from last week, as they were impressive, persistent, and broad.
Similar behavior has always preceded higher prices across almost all time frames for the S&P 500 and its major sectors. While it's wise to be cautious of "always," this is one of those signals upon which we place a heavy weight, as it has helped many times in recent decades.”
We are very pleased to offer this note of optimism. Call us “cautious bulls” at Aspen Grove Asset Management.
We welcome your calls if you need encouragement, and always give us a call if we can assist is any way.
Sincerely,
Dave Crouch Kim Blackburn Kay O’Connell
Registered Principal Branch Operations Manager Financial Advisor
Financial Advisor
Buffett Quote:
“Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome after-effects. Their precise nature is anyone's guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation.”
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